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Sunday, March 10, 2013

Even More Math


Fortifications are always handy.
Suppression, Saves and Casualties


Suppression (not casualties) makes the game interesting, because turns it into something more nuanced than a turkey-shoot. Suppressed units remain in play, but temporarily become less of a threat.

The first variable governing Suppression is RoF (and secondarily, to-Wound). The following chart shows the average number of hits a unit is likely to achieve at different RoFs and to-hit difficulties. 




7+
6+
5+
4+
3+
30
0.83
5
10
15
20
20
0.56
3.33
6.67
10
13.33
10
0.28
1.67
3.33
5
6.67



RoF 30 represents a typical unit of 9 rifles and one HMG, and is thus our baseline.  (We're going to just assume all hits wound for purposes of this chart.  If the target is a 10-strong unit, then 5 wounds represents the threshold needed to Suppress a target.

As you can see, a typical 30 RoF unit achieves this threshold relatively easily.  On the average, it should usually Suppress its target on 6+ and will almost certainly do so at a 5+.

A unit will largely require 7s only if it is Suppressed AND suffering some other penality.
It will require 6+s if it suffers Suppression OR a combined penalty such as Moving or firing through Concealment.  And it typically will need 5+s if suffering a simple penalty such as Moving.  Thus, most of the time, a full and active unit will Suppress its target.

Cover Saves also form a key aspect of the game, because the ratio of wounds to saves determines the ratio of Suppression to casualties.  If there are lots of wounds but few saves, then lots of models will die. Conversely, if there are lots of saves, then units will be Suppressed but not destroyed.

The frequency of Suppression, however, depends only on to-hit.  Given a to-hit value, it is invariant regardless of save. So, a unit with a better save is more survivable, but no more immune to Suppression.

Tactically, this means that fortifications and cover will prevent Suppression slightly (-1 to hit for Concealment), but reduce casualties by +1 or +2. Units in cover will need to higher RoF to Suppress and will survive for longer.  Players will need to use movement, RoF, Supression and cover cleverly to seize objectives and win games. 

I suspect most of my play-testing will envolve tinkering with the ratios of RoF, to-hit, to-wound, and save.

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